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United States of America Economics

The Impact of Governance & Globalization on Forecasting

(Traducción en Español)
D. Brouse, M. Hammel, and S. Mukherjee

Based on The Economics Of Y2K
InternetU.org

Abstract: The Tunnel Under Thesis

Planning and control are two traditional functions of management. Once a plan has been determined, it must be carried out. The cost involved in controlling the plan is dependent on the quality of the plan. The quality of the planning function depends largely on the ability to forecast events and trends with accuracy and precision.

Forecasting methodologies, such as qualitative analyses, time series analysis & projection, and econometric models, are widely used throughout U.S. businesses and governmental agencies.

The chaotic relationship of three key factors is likely to make traditional forecasting tools and methods increasingly unreliable:

Tunneling & Veiling

The result of these three ingredients in the stew will likely result in a figurative, as well as literal tunneling underground. Another term for this type of activity is decentralization.

Control Of Digital Distribution

The forecast for digital distribution suggests that existing systems for controlling data communications and digital distribution are failing. As the owners of the traditional systems attempt to maintain control, they will actually be the driving force in developing underground technologies.

Examples include peer-to-peer networks and music swapping websites.

Security

When a government wages a war against drugs, or terror, or any other globally organized illicit activity, there is often a significant amount of collateral damage to their own citizens, to their infrastructure and even their system of governance.

The Patriot Act and the Homeland Security Department are examples of the U.S. Federal Government's attempt to control based on their forecasting methods. However, the side-effects actually force all people, both good and bad, to decentralize their activities. The result is encrypted data tunnels and underground communication networks.

State governments are experiencing more difficulty controlling their tax receipts (in large part due to digital distribution of goods and services). As states try to control taxes based on your location, they will encourage the development of decentralized business systems.

This complicates the already inadequate and convoluted accounting systems in use by municipal government for over a century. For example, until 1985, many municipal governments did not have a fixed asset accounting system, nor did they have even an accurate inventory of all their assets. Therefore, the taxing authorities had no factual basis on which to tax their constituents.

Pollution

Pollution (greenhouse gases being a large threat) is causing irreversible climatic change. Some people consider the clearing of land to be a form of pollution. Whether you call it pollution or not, deforestation certainly compounds the global warming problem. Again, chaos theory suggests that meteorological forecasting will be affected in much the same way as economic forecasting. And, since the weather is so closely tied to the economy, the intensity in volatility is likely to be felt in both areas. [Note: although the Earth's average temperature may be rising slightly, the volatility for any given location is rising dramatically.]

Global warming, insect borne viri, nuclear fallout, reforms to flood insurance, and other weather related phenomena suggests a more literal tunneling under.

Additional Information

Study On Global Warming

The Sleeping Giant Vs. The Ghost In The Machine

Click here for additional notes.

References:

Managerial Economics, Pappas, Brigham, Hirschey (1983)

John F. Nash, Jr.'s Equilibrium for Non-cooperative Games Theory and Le Chatelier's Principle (known as the Law of Chemical Equilibrium) as Examples of: What to Expect from The Golden Rule's Social Justification , Think Tank (2003)

Report Warns Rising Ocean Temperatures Will Kill Most of the Coral on the Great Barrier Reef by 2050, AP (2004)

Europe's Largest Glacier Shrivels Under Global Warming, AFP (2003)

Bush Rejects Global Warming Treaty, Associated Press (2001)

This Year Was the 2nd Hottest, Confirming a Trend, U.N. Says, Associated Press (2001)

The prevailing scientific view is that continued and increased emissions of greenhouse gases will disrupt the Earth's climate in the foreseeable future., State Of NJ (1998)

Silent Earthquake, CNN (2002)

Signals Mount That a New El Niño is Gathering Steam, Peter N. Spotts (2002)

You Are A Suspect, William Safire (2002)

Taming the Task of Checking for Terrorists' Names, Sarah Milstein (2002)

The Economics Of Y2K, D. Brouse, D. Brouse, T. Brouse, M. Hammel, and S. Mukherjee (1995)

Arrival Of The Cuckoo Wasp, D. Brouse (2003)

Mystery Cancer Wiping Out Tasmanian Devils, Reuters (2003)

The Fight Against the Rising Tide, Charles Arthur (2004)

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