Never Wake a Sleeping Giant: The Future of Global Warming
aka The Sleeping Giant Rages Against the Ghost in the Machine

The conversation also reflects on broader societal problems, suggesting that the public tends to blame businesses and governments without recognizing its own role in demand creation, particularly regarding environmental issues. As consumers, the responsibility lies with us to drive change through altered consumption habits, rather than short-term protests that ultimately fail to address the underlying issues.

Don't Wake a Sleeping Giant
In her 1971 essay "A Defense of Abortion," philosopher Judith Jarvis Thomson introduced a powerful analogy to explore the moral complexities of bodily autonomy and the right to life. The thought experiment involves a scenario where you are kidnapped and connected to a famous, unconscious concert violinist whose survival depends on being physically attached to your body for nine months. Even though the violinist has a right to life, Thomson argues that you are not morally obligated to sustain his life at the expense of your own bodily autonomy. She uses this analogy to illustrate the moral intricacies of abortion, suggesting that while a fetus may have a right to life, that right does not necessarily supersede a woman's right to control her own body.

Expanding on this analogy, we might imagine society itself as a "sleeping giant." You and I, like a few awake individuals, are sitting beside this giant. The question arises: Should we startle the giant, jolting it into an immediate awareness of the crisis we face -- particularly the looming threat of climate change? What might happen if society, in its panic, awakens too suddenly to this reality? How might a startled giant, unprepared and overwhelmed, react to the enormity of the problem?

To extend the analogy further, consider that the economic system serves as the giant's "life-support machine," a metaphorical heart and lung apparatus that we collectively built and have become dependent on. Over time, we've observed that this machine -- our economic system -- is faltering and clearly unsustainable, much like the failing system that supports the violinist. Early instincts might urge us to rebel, to smash this flawed system outright. But doing so would accelerate our own downfall, potentially leading to a sudden collapse.

The pressing dilemma, then, is whether we can reform or replace this life-support system before it catastrophically fails. However, if society, symbolized by the giant, awakens too abruptly and lashes out against the system before we are fully prepared, the consequences could be disastrous. Like a panicked giant tearing out its life-support, a rushed or poorly coordinated response to the climate crisis could lead to chaos and unintended suffering.

This presents a profound challenge. Even well-meaning actions, such as a sudden, collective decision to halt all pollution for a day, could have devastating repercussions. Essential services like hospitals, transportation, and food supply chains would grind to a halt. The shock would ripple through energy infrastructure and economic systems, triggering further crises and hardship.

The irony is clear: attempting to address the problem too abruptly, whether by smashing the life-support machine or by halting pollution overnight, could create new problems that spiral into deeper crises. In seeking to "do the right thing" too hastily, we risk destabilizing society even more, illustrating the complex balancing act required as we face the monumental task of addressing climate change and transitioning to a sustainable future.

Conclusion
While biogeophysical factors can be studied using math, physics, and historical records, socio-economic systems pose greater challenges due to the unintended consequences of human behavior and inexplicable consumer choices.

2024 Update
In March of 2024, a viewer asked:
I am terrified of what the summer will bring. Yet I also wonder if enough people suffer from out-of-control heat, might it wake up some sleepers? There aren’t enough people paying attention.

This is also a significant concern for us. Traditionally, we would expect to observe a slowdown in ocean surface temperatures during ENSO-neutral and La Niña phases; however, two primary factors may hinder this cooling effect:

1. The unprecedented acceleration in ocean surface temperatures and sea level rise could counteract the upwelling of cool water typically associated with La Niña.
2. The restriction on sulfur in marine fuel has indirectly contributed to increased ocean surface temperatures. When sulfur emissions from marine fuels are reduced, ships switch to using cleaner fuels that emit fewer sulfur compounds. However, these cleaner fuels often contain more carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent greenhouse gas.

PART II: Don’t Wake a Sleeping Giant

Regarding people waking up to the climate crisis:

1. It seems that nothing can prompt the anti-woke to acknowledge the severity of the issue. For instance, Arizona experienced nearly two months of days with temperatures exceeding 110 degrees last year, with wet-bulb temperatures posing lethal risks for outdoor workers. Despite this, Arizona remains one of the strongest concentrations of climate deniers.
2. If those who are currently unaware suddenly awaken en masse, the resulting panic and knee-jerk reaction could be equally harmful. We wrote a paper on this phenomenon in 2004 titled “The Sleeping Giant Rages Against the Ghost in the Machine.” The essence of the paper is that awakening the sleeping giant leads to panic, potentially resulting in harm to others.

Human-induced climate change is a dynamic component of an intricate and unordered system, as per chaos theory. This implies that global warming is accelerating exponentially in a complex manner. Over the period from 1992 to 2023, we have presented compelling evidence, proposed remedies to mitigate climate change, and amassed valuable information through the engagement of millions with this climate model. Your participation has been invaluable. The incontrovertible data underscores that human-induced climate change is rapidly deteriorating our habitat.

Our climate model / experiment employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9℃ above pre-industrial levels. Global warming is a consequence of elevated thermal energy in the climate system, which comprises various subsystems. Chaos theory underscores the intricate and nonlinear nature of dynamic systems. Human well-being is compromised above a 1.5-degree temperature rise, rendering much of the Earth uninhabitable. A 9-degree Celsius increase would bring the Earth close to a wet-bulb temperature incapable of sustaining human life.

Unfortunately, even scientists are failing to see (let alone forecast) the rapid acceleration in climate change. Due to their complexity, the impacts of the Domino Effect are being underestimated. Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops. The Domino Effect is also known as "tipping cascades" in climate science. Cascading impacts in relation to tipping points include cascading impacts across biogeophysical and social systems. Until recently, scientist have been drastically underestimating the social-ecological systems. The University of Exeter reports, "There is a notable lack of topic clusters dedicated to how humans will be impacted by climate-related tipping cascades."

Previous climate models have inadequately incorporated "social-ecological systems" as human involvement was not a significant factor in past climate changes. Regrettably, the United States ranks among the least prepared countries globally, with the highest percentage of climate deniers. The Republican party dismisses it as a manufactured crisis and plans to increase fossil fuel production, exacerbating the situation. Political extremists asserting that the climate crisis is manufactured employ an ironic term, considering that human manufacturing activities are the primary driver of climate change. Both political parties have concurred to allocate unlimited emergency funding for climate disasters instead of proactively preventing them. Last year, the US witnessed a record number of over a billion-dollar climate disasters, totaling 28 separate weather and climate-related events. It is due to this arrogance and ignorance that "worst-case scenarios" are now "best-case scenarios" for the acceleration of climate change. These factors have altered our climate model, shifting the projected maximum temperature rise from 4 degrees Celsius over the next millennium to a probable increase of 9 degrees Celsius this century.

What Can I Do? There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and affect the world.

Here is a list of additional actions you can take.